Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 103713.584419 109249.695169 114777.846664 120708.646393 126887.555998 133131.521328 139914.401679
2025-08-24 95352.333884 103887.455535 112640.430026 122276.769953 132576.523793 143244.224102 155116.913723
2025-08-31 88307.355644 98837.634731 109867.527816 122259.662454 135771.218331 150033.318329 166202.511250
2025-09-07 83958.631576 96097.032170 109035.776205 123816.727129 140196.059251 157751.916525 177952.285600
2025-09-14 80112.382557 93518.752823 108029.973543 124849.474665 143750.647354 164277.583938 188197.095046
2025-09-21 76280.499964 90663.952305 106451.907941 124993.138880 146093.387584 169279.694389 196603.837843
2025-09-28 72947.500982 88155.941769 105065.486397 125163.915828 148300.032009 173995.569366 204585.188665
2025-10-05 71024.816433 87130.640622 105246.448256 127011.562354 152323.575061 180702.417722 214790.167300
2025-10-12 69128.592458 86017.137435 105221.900049 128529.576661 155895.573906 186848.016154 224336.820163
2025-10-19 67012.406773 84533.932934 104668.895986 129343.059102 158578.459311 191922.391403 232626.028695
2025-10-26 64733.344506 82753.549421 103673.571315 129550.333929 160480.215954 196039.820877 239774.668991
2025-11-02 62804.278843 81312.057336 103007.017846 130080.490479 162708.801871 200503.591015 247314.591875
2025-11-09 60751.454501 79666.299229 102055.239741 130243.112513 164495.229428 204468.052584 254321.959961
2025-11-16 59499.724690 78959.706426 102203.179516 131707.673244 167832.872539 210281.737518 263562.046285
2025-11-23 57555.382906 77319.178849 101145.239360 131643.173817 169274.087289 213800.639795 270049.672278
2025-11-30 56574.480483 76849.403867 101497.498034 133286.484944 172783.505474 219810.093714 279560.023528
2025-12-07 55391.389642 76076.511901 101433.275427 134380.859977 175598.135866 224974.013195 288063.301747
2025-12-14 53831.122779 74767.099692 100648.825155 134532.871799 177214.625279 228660.101023 294766.047207
2025-12-21 52366.732854 73534.288033 99918.452475 134714.100883 178837.519175 232337.315730 301458.010376
2025-12-28 51782.393287 73426.524823 100602.669942 136675.990900 182689.922300 238774.485698 311581.917876
2026-01-04 51076.027810 73130.743231 101024.041601 138287.651178 186097.015794 244670.645838 321067.190046
2026-01-11 50081.016358 72419.150067 100880.384405 139151.233949 188542.761339 249370.134531 329082.504791
2026-01-18 48858.392247 71366.706380 100260.904601 139371.264915 190147.335027 253008.285625 335778.564153